By Drew Dietsch
| Published
It looks like my tenure here at Giant Freakin Robot is going to involve me talking about the box office again. I have to supply a ton of material for this website and box office discussion is a subject I’m actually knowledgeable about. It’s especially ripe to talk box office when summer tentpoles are in swing, even juicier when it involves a stupid rivalry like Marvel vs. DC.
Thanks to Superman and Fantastic Four: First Steps releasing within weeks of each other, it’s time to see any number of armchair analysts assert their beliefs as gospel and to see which narratives get embraced at the fan feeding trough. As always, there is more nuance to observe than whatever rallying cry is being trumpeted on social media.
So, let’s take a look at what we can possibly learn from the second weekend of release for Fantastic Four: First Steps at the domestic box office.
Dissecting Drops
Looking at how much a movie’s box office earnings drop in a second weekend can give you some insight into how the movie is being perceived with audiences. As always, the contributing factors of new releases, solid holdovers, and screen advantage (number of screens playing a movie) should factor into the discussion. In that regard, Fantastic Four: First Steps took a not-insignificant second weekend hit (-66%) from what was stronger-than-expected competition from The Bad Guys 2 and The Naked Gun. And yes, Superman’s holdover strength was also a believable factor in pulling a few more potential tickets away from the newest MCU entry. That flick has legs.
Comparatively, Superman’s second weekend had a stronger hold (-53.2%). Some will say that this means Superman garnered better word-of-mouth recommendations than Fantastic Four: First Steps. I won’t fully discount that narrative but I’ll also say Superman faced weaker new releases on its second weekend; I Know What You Did Last Summer and Smurfs did not take away a large enough chunk of Superman’s potential audience. Those two films took in around $23.8 million opening against Superman in its second release, whereas The Bad Guys 2 and The Naked Gun collected somewhere in the ballpark of $39 million. So, the stronger competition angle holds up.
Marvel Means Money, But How Much?
Fantastic Four: First Steps is going to end with a respectable domestic gross, but if the pattern holds, it’s likely Superman will win that particular battle. Weapons is aiming for the number one spot thanks to its IMAX release, so Fantastic Four: First Steps will lose more of those showtimes.
The cultural pull that the MCU once had at the box office has undoubtedly weakened, and it’s going to be truly fascinating seeing how Weapons and Freakier Friday affect another weekend drop for Fantastic Four: First Steps. I’m not ready to call the MCU dead at the movie theater but it’s clear that Marvel is recalculating just how much they can expect to bring in at the box office.
Anyone screaming, “Fantastic Four is a flop!” or “Superman is a flop” is either an idiot or a grifter. Or both, they certainly aren’t mutually exclusive. However, Superman is looking to come out on top with domestic audiences as far as immediate interest is concerned. If Fantastic Four: First Steps another sizeable drop that’s noteworthy, I’ll be back next week to talk about it.
